策劃、編譯■魏世昌
美國總統歐巴馬20日取得了一場脆弱的外交勝利。以色列與巴勒斯坦將就解決以巴之間最終地位所有問題重啟直接談判，首輪對話將於9月2日在華盛頓舉行。
President Barack Obama scored a fragile diplomatic victory on Friday as Israel and the Palestinians indicated they were ready to resume （1） direct peace talks in Washington on September 2.
不過，前方是條未知的道路，歐巴馬更得面臨相當風險，當美國政府正尋求盟友，對抗伊斯蘭極端分子的苦戰與遏制伊朗核武的野心，任何新的挫敗都將讓美國和穆斯林世界、以色列的關係更緊張。
But the way forward is uncertain and Obama faces risks that any new setback （2） could poison U.S. ties with the Muslim world and strain relations with Israel as Washington seeks a united front on issues including the struggle against Islamic extremists and efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
為何選在這個時間點?WHY NOW?美國政府長期以來迫切要求重啟以巴對話。美國中東和平特使密契爾數月以來，不停穿梭於以色列總理尼坦雅胡、巴勒斯坦自治政府主席阿巴斯之間，以解決中東分歧。
The United States has been pressing hard for direct negotiations to resume. U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell has shuttled between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas for months to resolve differences.
歐巴馬希望9月26日前進行會談，屆時為以色列暫停為期10個月於約旦河西岸屯墾地的建設工程到期日。任何全面恢復的建設都將永久破壞協商。
Obama wanted the talks under way before September 26, when Israel’s 10-month moratorium on West Bank settlement construction is due to end. Any full-scale resumption of settlement building could torpedo negotiations for good.
尼坦雅胡曾經表示，他願意直接會談，但不應附加先決條件。美國國務卿希拉蕊20日已對此掛保證。
Netanyahu has said he was ready for direct talks but said there should be no preconditions （3） attached -- a position echoed by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Friday.
另一方面，阿巴斯立場堅硬，認定中東和平四方集團：歐盟、俄羅斯、聯合國和美國所發出的平行處理原則，應由巴勒斯坦人籌擬會談議程，並且重申先前對以色列的呼籲，即停止在佔領的猶太屯墾地建設開發。
Abbas, on the other hand, insisted on and received a parallel statement by the quartet of Middle East peace mediators -- the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union -- that Palestinians say lays out an agenda for the talks and repeats earlier calls on Israel to halt Jewish settlement building on occupied land.
會談目標為何?WHAT IS THE GOAL?希拉蕊希望協商後，能夠在一年內達成具體目標。如此一來，將永久終結以色列的佔領，也順勢建立一個獨立、民主與可實行的「巴勒斯坦國」。
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wants the talks to produce a deal within 12 months that would ultimately end Israeli occupation and establish an independent, democratic and viable Palestinian state.
中東和平四方集團表示，協商應以建立新興的巴勒斯坦國為前提進行。為達目的，需要美國對其阿拉伯盟國施加壓力，加速對缺乏現金的巴勒斯坦自治政府財政支援。
The quartet, which issued its own invitation to the Washington talks, said the negotiations should be accompanied by a drive to build up the fledgling Palestinian state, which could require U.S. pressure on its Arab allies to step up their financial commitments to the cash-strapped Palestinian Authority.
美國希望這回以巴會談達成的協議，能為全面的區域和平協議開啟大門。其中，可能涉及過去美國政府與敘利亞、黎巴嫩與約旦超過50年的外交難題，將可望獲得解決。
The United States hopes a deal between Israel and the Palestinians will open the door to a comprehensive regional peace agreement that could involve Syria, Lebanon and Jordan resolving a diplomatic conundrum that has bedeviled successive U.S. administrations for more than 50 years.
歐巴馬同時邀請約旦國王阿布杜拉二世與埃及總統穆巴拉克出席會談，顯示出美國官員希望匯集更廣泛的區域，以產生新的和平成果。
Obama invited both Jordan’s King Abdullah and Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak to attend the Washington summit, a sign that U.S. officials are hoping for a broader regional buy-in to the new peace effort.
願景為何?WHAT ARE THE PROSPECTS?自90年代初，以巴談判代表已多次磋商；但每回早日取得進展的希望都無疾而終。
Israeli and Palestinian negotiators have come to the table repeatedly since the early 1990s but in each case early hopes for progress collapsed.
阿巴斯在2008年加薩戰爭後，斷絕了雙方的努力。自此，以巴在關鍵問題上相距更加遙遠。關鍵問題包括首都「耶路撒冷」的爭議、公正的安頓巴勒斯坦難民、約旦河西岸猶太人的命運等。另外，假若未來巴勒斯坦國建立後，以色列是否有權巡查該國的國際邊界，也成爭議論點。
Abbas broke off the last effort in 2008 after the Gaza war, and the two sides remain far apart on key issues including competing claims on Jerusalem as the capital, a fair settlement for Palestinian refugees, the fate of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and whether Israel would be able to patrol the international borders of a future Palestinian state.
但若要雙方進程步入正軌，還有一股現實壓力。歐巴馬將在會談前，個別與尼坦雅胡、阿巴斯會面，以標誌他個人的涉入程度。
But there are real pressures on both sides to get the process on track. Obama will signal his personal involvement by meeting individually with Abbas and Netanyahu before the talks formally begin.
歐巴馬的下一步?WHAT’S NEXT FOR OBAMA?對歐巴馬來說，重啟停滯的談判是重要的一步棋。歐巴馬希望，這次會談解決以巴僵局後，能夠支撐他修復美國與穆斯林世界的關係。先前這份關係在伊拉克與阿富汗戰爭受到嚴重考驗。
The prospect of resuming long-stalled negotiations is a welcome coup for Obama, who hopes that resolving the impasse （4） between Israel and the Palestinians will bolster his drive to repair U.S. relations with the Muslim world, which have been tested by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
不過，以現況看來，每向前一步的同時，也可能後退一步。美國政府小心翼翼地緊盯以巴兩國，若會談拖延未有任何決議，可能其中一方將準備先行退出。
But with every step forward comes the possibility of a step back, and the U.S. administration will watch warily for signs that either the Israelis or the Palestinians are ready to pull the plug if talks drag on without resolution.
自歐巴馬上任已來，美國與以色列的關係開始障礙重重。同時，11月將到來的國會期中選舉，以及美國議員與選民間親以色列的強烈情緒，都讓美國政府正隱約進入一個棘手時期。
U.S. relations with Israel have been rocky since Obama took office, and the U.S. administration is entering a delicate period with U.S. congressional elections looming in November and pro-Israel sentiment strong among American lawmakers and voters.
歐巴馬為了加速區域和平與維持國際對伊朗的謹慎做法，需要以色列協助。以色列與西方強權都懷疑，伊朗尋求發展核武器。
Obama needs Israel’s help not only to forge （5） a regional peace but also to maintain the careful international approach to Iran, which both Israel and major Western powers suspect is seeking to develop atomic weapons.
美國成功推動對伊朗實施的制裁；伊朗宣稱，核計畫純粹是用於和平目的。
The United States has led a successful push to impose sanctions on Tehran, which says its nuclear program is purely for peaceful purposes.
不過，外界推定有核子武力的以色列曾經暗示，為阻止伊朗製造核武，不惜動用軍力為最終手段。這項舉動將讓美國捲入意外的衝突，可能危及美國於世界的利益。
But Israel -- assumed to have its own atomic arsenal -- has hinted at military strikes as a last resort to deny Iran the means to make a nuclear bomb, a move that could draw the United States into an unplanned confrontation that could jeopardize U.S. interests around the world.
（路透Reuters）
關鍵字詞Key Words1. resume
(v.) 重新開始、繼續
2. setback
(n.) 挫敗
3. precondition
(n.) 先決條件
4. impasse
(n.) 僵局
5. forge
(v.) 加速前進
文章來源: 台灣立報
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